The burden of health services in Turkey: The relationship between population growth rate and institutional capacity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19592678Keywords:
Health service burden, Institutional capacity, Population growth rateAbstract
Aim: This study aims to examine the key dynamics affecting the burden of healthcare services in Türkiye.
Materials and Methods: In this study, annual data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for the period 1985–2023 were used. The number of people per physician is the dependent variable, and the population growth rate and the total number of health institutions are the independent variables. Analyses were performed by taking the logarithm of these variables. First, descriptive statistics were presented. Then, the Philips-Perron (PP) unit root test and the ARDL bounds test were applied. Finally, the long and short term coefficients of the ARDL(2,1,2) model were examined, and the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares graphs of this model were analyzed.
Results: A long-term relationship (cointegration) was found between the number of people per physician, population growth rate, and the total number of healthcare institutions.
Conclusion: It has been concluded that the increase in the number of healthcare institutions has increased the workload of physicians. For sustainability in healthcare services, not only the number of institutions but also planning and human resources are important.
References
Yılmaz D. Sağlık kurumlarında kalite kapsamında personel eğitimlerinin irdelenmesi. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2024;8(36):527-541.
Lohr K, Steinwachs D. Health services research: an evolving definition of the field. Health Services Research. 2002;37(1):7-9.
Evans D, Hsu J, Boerma T. Universal health coverage and universal access. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2013;91(8):546-546A.
Adesola RO, Opuni E, Idris I, Okesanya OJ, Igwe O, Abdulazeez MD, et al. Navigating Nigeria’s health landscape: population growth and its health implications. Environmental Health Insights, 2024;18:1-8.
Hajizadeh A, Albelbeisi AH, Tajvar M. Impacts of population ageing on the functions of the health system: a systematic review. Iranian Journal of Ageing. 2024;19(3):328-361.
Sahoo PM, Rout HS, Jakovljevic M. Consequences of India's population aging to its healthcare financing and provision. J Med Econ. 2023;26(1):308-315.
Hambleton I, Caixeta R, Jeyaseelan S, Luciani S, Hennis A. The rising burden of non-communicable diseases in the Americas and the impact of population aging: a secondary analysis of available data. Lancet Regional Health. 2023;21.
Lopreite M, Zhu Z. The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach. Soc Sci Med. 2020;265:113513.
Mendelson D, Schwartz W. The effects of aging and population growth on health care costs. Health Affairs. 1993;(12)1:119-25.
Shao Q, Tao R, Luca M. The effect of urbanization on health care expenditure: Evidence from China. Frontiers in Public Health. 2022;10.
Onuoha D. Evaluation of the effects of rapid urban population growth on the health infrastructures in selected urban centers in Anambra state. Journal of Natural Sciences Research. 2020;10(4):53-64.
Kremlev N. The essence of institutional mechanisms of population adaptation and assessment of their effectiveness. Statistics and Economics. 2022;19(5):13-24.
Mcnicoll G. Population and institutional change. International Social Science Journal. 1994;46(141):307.
Mcnicoll G, Cain M. Institutional effects on rural economic and demographic change. Population and Development Review. 1989;15:3-42.
Özçelik Ö, Önder H. Ekonomik özgürlüklerin yenilenebilir enerji üzerindeki etkisinin panel veri yöntemi ile incelenmesi. Journal of Economics and Related Studies. 2023;5(4): 214-234.
Yılmaz H, Tütüncü A. Türkiye’de bütçe açığı–cari açık ilişkisi: zamanla değişen nedensellik testi (1975-2017). Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2020;15(1):47-60.
Aksan HA, Ergin I, Ocek Z. The change in capacity and service delivery at public and private hospitals in Turkey: a closer look at regional differences. BMC Health Services Research. 2010;10(300):2-9.
Yalçın AZ, Çakmak F. Türkiye’de kamu sağlık harcamalarının insani gelişim üzerindeki etkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2016;30(4):705-723.
Si Y, Zhou Z, Su M, Hu H, Yang Z, Chen X. Re-examining supplier-ınduced demand in health care: comparisons among patients affiliated and not affiliated with healthcare professionals in China. IZA Discussion Papers. 2020:13800.
Stierli R, Rozsnyai Z, Felber R, Jörg R, Kraft E, Exadaktylos AK, et al. Primary care physician workforce 2020 to 2025–a cross-sectional study for the canton of Bern. Swiss Medical Weekly. 2021;151(3536):w30024-w30024.
Zavras D. Studying supplier-induced demand in healthcare: an econophysics approach. Frontiers in Health Services, 2025;5:1704835.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Social and Analytical Health
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
JSOAH is licensed under a 